The future is bright! Despite dashing rate-cut hopes, Fed confirms Goldilocks economy for 2019, US futures rising
May 02, 2019
Market data as of 7am EST
US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open
- While the Fed put some frowns on faces yesterday dashing rate cut hopes, their outlook on the US economy for 2019 was very positive and investors are remembering that this morning, futures are higher in pre-market trading with front-month Dow Jones minis +0.06%, S&P 500 minis +0.17% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.27%
- The Federal Reserve made clear yesterday it has no plans to cut rates any time soon, dashing market expectations for a cut as its next move
- Press reports are stating that the US and China could announce a final trade deal as soon as next Friday, US officials have not commented on that report, read more: US warships in Taiwan Straight can only mean one thing: US-China Trade Negotiations Resume this Week
- Oil exports from Iran are due to be cut off by US sanctions starting today with Saudi Arabia hoped to be making up any shortfall
- Initial Jobless claims for the week ending April 27th will come today with 215k expected
- Bank of England officials said inflation will be above 2% and rising in 2021 if there is only one rate hike between now and then, indicating the probability of more hikes than expected by the market
- All of our stocks ratings are updated for May: click here to look up any stock, click here to see all our Global Top Stock Ideas
- Read more on the blowout jobs report from yesterday: Hold the Phone! US Private Sector Crushes Job Growth Forecasts, The Goldilocks Economy Rocks On!
- What's up with FAANG results? FAANG Results for First Quarter: Part bite, part nibble
- The VIX is moving down this morning and is currently at 13.21 after closing at 14.8 yesterday
- Market strategists continue to be worried about a rebound in volatility and its potential impact on US stocks. While implied volatility levels are low, realized volatility is even lower! That would suggest any rebound in stock volatility could potentially shake the factors driving the current rally in US stocks.
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) May 10 OTM Puts, VanEck Vectors Oil Service ETF (OIH) July 19 OTM Calls and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) May 17 OTM Calls are the most actively traded options contracts in US pre-market trading this morning
- US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 2.16 basis points to 2.5215%
- The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 0.27 basis points to 0.19%
- WTI Crude is currently down -0.49% to USD$63.6/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-0.3 to USD$8.16/bbl
- Gold is currently down -0.39% to USD$1271.72/oz
Stocks Trending in the News
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Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News
- Caesars Entertainment (CZR) reported first quarter revenue that beat expectations with earnings that trailed. Caesars Entertainment reported first quarter revenue of $2.12 billion, ahead of $2.08 billion consensus. Caesars posted a loss per share of 32 cents, well below the 17 cents expected. Caesars Entertainment is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Unattractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Church & Dwight (CHD) posted first quarter earnings that beat expectations. Church & Dwight reported first quarter adjusted EPS of 70 cents, ahead of 64 cents expected. Church & Dwight first quarter revenue of $1.04 billion matched consensus. Church & Dwight provided second quarter guidance of ~52 cents, matching consensus. Organic revenue growth of 3.5% is expected in the second quarter and for the full year. Church & Dwight is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas
- Dunkin’ Brands (DNKN) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus with guidance that is below. Dunkin’ reported first quarter EPS of 67 cents, ahead of 62 cents consensus. First quarter revenue of $319.1 million beat $312.6 consensus. Dunkin Donuts same store sale beat while Baskin-Robbins trailed expectations. Dunkin’ Brands is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Hanesbrands (HBI) posted first quarter earnings and net sales that beat expectations. Hanesbrands first quarter adjusted EPS of 27 cents beat 25 cents expectations. First quarter net sales of $1.59 billion beat $1.53 billion consensus. Hanesbrands provided EPS guidance of 43 cents to 45 cents while present consensus was 46 cents. Net sales are expected to be $1.74 to $1.79 billion in the second quarter. Hanesbrands is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus. Intercontinental Exchange first quarter adjustable EPS of $0.92 came just above $0.90 consensus. First quarter revenue of $1.27 billion matched consensus of $1.27 billion. Intercontinental Exchange approved a $0.275 per share dividend for the second quarter. Intercontinental Exchange sees second quarter data revenue of $550 million to $555 million. Intercontinental Exchange is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
- Kellogg (K) reported first quarter earnings that beat consensus. Kellogg reported first quarter EPS of $1.01, ahead of 95 cents expected. Kellogg’s first quarter revenue of $3.52 billion, in line with $3.54 billion. Recently announced divestures will cuts 2019 by 2-3%. Kellogg said CFO Fareed Khan will leave July 1st. Kellogg is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas
- Starbucks (SBUX) is recalling a coffee press it sold in its stores. Starbucks is recalling about 263,000 Budum coffee presses it sold in its store in a voluntary recall due to it potentially breaking during use. Starbucks informed the US Consumer Products Safety Commission. The presses were sold from 2016 until this past January. The cost of the recall could top $5 million for Starbucks if all presses are returned. Starbucks is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
Global Information Technology Stocks Trending in the News
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered first quarter earnings and revenue in line. AMD first quarter revenue of $1.27 billion matched consensus of $1.26 billion, growing 8%. Adjusted EPS of 6 cents came a bit ahead if 5 cents expected. AMD gave second quarter revenue guidance of $1.47 billion to $1.57 billion. AMD is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
- Apple (AAPL) reported fiscal second quarter earnings that beat consensus. Apple first quarter EPS was $2.46, beating $2.36 consensus. Apple saw revenue of $58 billion in the second quarter beating consensus of $57.49 billion. Apple announced it would buy back $75 billion worth of stock. Apple gave third quarter revenue guidance of $52.5 billion to $54.5 billion, well above consensus of $52.2 billion. Apple said iPhone revenue dropped to $31.05 billion from $37.6 billion a year ago. Apple is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
Global Financials Stocks Trending in the News
- Apollo Global (APO) announced first quarter earnings that trailed consensus as said it will convert to a corporation. Apollo reported distributable EPS of 50 cents, behind 57 cents expected. Apollo reported $303 billion in asset under management with $24.9 billion in inflows. Apollo announced it will convert to a corporation from a partnership, a move many of its peers have already done in the wake of tax law changes. Apollo Global is rated “Attractive” in our US SMID-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
- CME Group (CME) reported first quarter results that came largely in line with consensus. CME Group first quarter revenue of $1.18 billion matched consensus of $1.19 billion. First quarter EPS of $1.62 came just above $1.60 consensus. Total average rate per contract rose 2% to 71.3 cents. CME Group is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
- MetLife (MET) reported earnings and net income that beat expectations. MetLife first quarter EPS of $1.48 beat consensus of $1.27. First quarter net income of $1.35 billion beat $1.25 billion consensus. Premiums and fees grew 2% in the quarter as its return on equity rose to 10.3% from 9% a year ago. MetLife is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
Global Commodities & Power Stocks Trending in the News
- Dow Inc (DOW) reported revenue just above consensus. Dow reported first quarter revenue of $10.77 billion, just ahead of consensus of $10.70 billion. Dow posted operational ebitda of $1.92 billion. Dow said it sees some “discrete headwinds” in the coming quarter. Dow said it is focused on realizing costs savings through synergies with $125 million already realized and has $400 million to yet be realized. Dow is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
International Stock Markets Recaps
- The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.29%, the FTSE 100 is down -0.06%, the DAX has risen +0.21%, and the CAC 40 is down -0.49%
- Travel & Leisure (-0.38%), Financial Services (-0.1%), and Retail (-1.22%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
- Automobiles & Parts (+0.87%), Basic Resources (-1.14%), and Personal & Household Goods (-0.86%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
- Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.54x
- 108 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 59 stocks are at 4-week lows
- 98 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 7 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio