Jekyll or Hyde? Contrasting trade news from Trump administration whipsaws global sentiment; futures higher this morning
May 16, 2019
Market data as of 7am EST
US Stocks Preview Ahead of the Open
- Futures are higher today on positive trade news-today-as investors try to assess the next move from the Trump administration, front-month Dow Jones minis are +0.28%, S&P 500 minis +0.33% and Nasdaq 100 minis +0.32%
- Check out Quantamize on CNBC discussing why we love ALPHABET (GOOGL): click here for video
- The US has agreed to delay tariffs on EU and Japanese auto imports for 6 months to try and close a deal
- The US said it is close to finalizing an update of NAFTA (now USMCA) with Canada and Mexico
- The US continues to focus its trade fire on China as the market awaits word on more tariffs on Chinese imports
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 11th will come out today, consensus is for 220,000
- US housing starts data is due today and consensus is for monthly growth of 6.2%
- Interest rate cuts: Multiple Fed Funds Cuts Coming in 2019? Futures Say Yes, But...
- Top Low Vol Stocks: TOP LOW VOLATILITY STOCKS for what has lately felt like a high volatility market
- The VIX is moving lower this morning and is currently at 15.92 after closing at 16.44 yesterday
- Today’s drop in the VIX is simply the result of limited put buying after a spike in demand a few days ago. Wouldn’t read too much into the VIX dropping here.
- Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) June 21 OTM Puts, Bank of America (BAC) May 17 OTM Calls and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) May 17 OTM Puts are the most actively traded options
- US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are lower with yields up 1.06 basis points to 2.3838%
- The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has narrowed 1.38 basis points to 0.2%
- WTI Crude is currently up 0.39% to USD$62.02/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread little changed USD$0.21 to USD$11.33/bbl
- Gold is currently little changed -0.17% to USD$1294.28/oz
Stocks Trending in the News
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Global Consumer Stocks Trending in the News
- Beyond Meat (BYND) has seen its share price rally strongly post-IPO. Beyond Meat is trading over $88 while the highest price target in the market is $81. Beyond Meat has surged over 250% since its recent IPO as investors bet the demand for meat alternatives will grow strongly. Beyond Meat is not yet rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas
- Children’s Place (PLCE) shares plunged after management said revenue in May is facing “a vacuum.” Children’s Place at the same time increased full-year EPS guidance to $5.75 to $6.25, consensus is presently $5.58. Children’s Place is citing poor weather for the sudden drop in revenue it is seeing this Spring. Children’s Place is rated “Top Short” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Jack in the Box (JACK) reported fiscal second quarter adjusted earnings that beat consensus. Jack in the Box reported fiscal second quarter adjusted EPS of 99 cents, beating consensus of 80 cents. Second quarter revenue of $215.7 million beat consensus of $209.8 million. Jack in the Box posted same store sales growth of 0.2% beating consensus of a 0.1% drop. Jack in the Box is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Kering Group (KER) announced it will no longer work with models under 18 years of age. Kering said this will apply to both live fashion shows and photos. Kering had announced last year that it would no longer work with models under 16. The effort is part of a movement to improve the treatment of models across the industry. Kering (ENXTPA:KER) is rated “Top Buy” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
- Nestle (SWX:NESN) has entered exclusive talks to sell its skin-health business to private-equity firm EQT and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the WSJ is reporting. This is the first concrete move from Nestle since it announced in September its plans to reshape its portfolio of products in an effort to spur growth. The general plan is to focus more on coffee, pet care, and consumer health. Nestle said it expects to close a deal in the second half of 2019. Nestle in rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
- Sony (SNE) announced its second share buyback this year. Sony approved a buyback of up to 200 billion yen. Sony could buy back up to 4.8% of its outstanding shares if fully implemented. Sony is responding to activist investors who have demanded buybacks. Sony is rated “Attractive” in our Japan Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
- Telsa (TSLA) saw one of its biggest investors sell most of its position in the stock. T. Rowe Price had been one of Tesla’s biggest investors since going public but recently unloaded 81% of its holdings in Tesla. The paring down if its position comes in the wake of a 30% drop in Tesla’s share price in 2019. Tesla is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Consumer Discretionary Global Top Stock Ideas
- Thomas Cook (LSE:TCG) warned it will be another tough summer for the company. Thomas Cook said it is selling its airline as it struggles with weak demand due to a number of factors. Thomas Cook will receive a 300 million pond rescue loan to help with its liquidity crunch. Thomas Cook is rated “Top Short” in our United Kingdom Global Top Stock Ideas
- Walmart (WMT) reported earnings that beat consensus. Walmart reported first quarter adjusted EPS of $1.13, ahead of $1.02 expectation. Revenue of $123.9 billion trailed $124.9 billion consensus. Comparable sales grew 3.4% y/y matching consensus. Walmart saw e-commerce sales grow 37% y/y. Walmart is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Consumer Staples Global Top Stock Ideas
Global Information Technology Stocks Trending in the News
- Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported solid fiscal third quarter revenue earnings, a touch above consensus. Cisco reported fiscal third quarter EPS of 78 cents, beating consensus of 77 cents. Revenue of $12.96 billion beat consensus of $12.87 billion. Cisco gave bullish guidance, saying fiscal fourth quarter revenue should grow 4.5% to 6.5%, to $13.2 billion to $`3.5 billion; consensus is $13.3 billion. Cisco Systems is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
- Netease (NTES) reported first quarter earnings that beat the highest estimate. Netease reported first quarter adjusted earnings per ADR of $3.48, beating consensus of $2.42. Revenue in the first quarter of $2.74 billion trailed consensus of $2.67 billion. Netease saw its stock upgraded at buy at China Renaissance with its price target hiked to $330. Netease is rated “Top Buy” in our China All-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
Global Financials Stocks Trending in the News
- Citigroup (C) was fined 310.8 million euros by the EU for its traders’ participation in an F/X collusion scheme. Citigroup’s traders colluded in chat rooms over F/X trading strategies to the detriment of investors. The EU called the traders a “cartel” who illegally manipulated the F/X market for their own gain. Citigroup is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
- New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is trading lower on proposals in the New York State Legislature to strengthen rent control laws in favor of tenants. The New York State Legislature is not completely controlled by Democrats who have made clear their plans to make life harder for building owners. New York Community Bancorp is the most exposed bank in New York state to multi-family building lending, according to Wedbush, as is likely to suffer from lower loan and re-financing demand. New York Community Bancorp is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas
International Stock Markets Recaps
- The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently up +0.38%, the FTSE 100 is higher by +0.24%, the DAX has risen +0.71%, and the CAC 40 is up +0.32%
- European strategists appear to be capitulating and are now concluding that the “Japanification” of Germany has occurred with the yield on the German 10-year Bund negative while inflation expectations are below 1%
- Basic Resources (+1.94%), Retail (-0.42%), and Automobiles & Parts (-0.4%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
- Real Estate (-0.02%), Utilities (-0.02%), and Travel & Leisure (-0.28%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
- Investor sentiment for European stocks is positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 2.51x
- 54 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 128 stocks are at 4-week lows
- 19 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 44 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
- The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.59%, the Hang Seng ended up +0.02%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise up +0.07%, and the CSI 300 was +0.45%
- Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 0.6x
- 13 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 36 stocks reached 4-week lows
- 3 stocks in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 67 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
- Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 2.57x
- 0 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 7 stocks reached 4-week lows
- 0 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 12 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio