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Global stocks declining as recent momentum fueling rally crumbles

Jan 17, 2019

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Market data as of 7am EST

 

US Stocks

  • US stocks index futures are dropping in pre-market trading with front-month Dow Jones minis –0.31%, S&P 500 minis –0.35% and Nasdaq 100 minis –0.38%
  • The US government formally alleges that Huawei Technologies has stolen “trade secrets” and has begun a formal federal investigation -- the news of the investigation has rekindled investor fears about a breakdown in US-China trade talks 
  • Weeden & Co Chief Global Strategist Michael Purves highlights that the gap between VIX and realized 20-day volatility for the S&P 500 is at the widest levels since September 2011 – typically a wide spread is a leading indicator of a positive move in US stocks
  • Bloomberg analysts suggest large-cap tech stocks should see a contraction in their EPS growth rates as revenue growth is expected to decelerate over the next 4 quarters -- the former “strongman” of the S&P 500 has now become its weakest link!
  • The VIX is little changed this morning and is currently at 19.22 after closing at 19.04 yesterday
  • EEM February 15 & March 15 OTM Puts, HYG January 18 OTM Puts, Bank of America (BAC) January 18 OTM Calls, and XLF January 2021 OTM Puts are some of the most actively traded US options contracts in the US pre-market today
  • US 10-Year Treasury Bonds are higher with yields down -0.72 basis points to 2.7146%
  • The US Treasury 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.31 basis points to 0.18%
  • WTI Crude is currently up 0.38% to USD$52.31/bbl with the Brent-WTI spread down USD$-1.35 to USD$7.66/bbl
  • Gold is currently little changed 0.04% to USD$1294.22/oz

Stocks Trending in the News

Click name for Q-Factor breakdown, latest price details, more financial info and sentiment data.
 

  • Alcoa (AA) reported 4Q18 EPS of 66 cents while 58 cents was consensus.  Alcoa adjusted ebitda of USD$749 million topped USD$717 million consensus.  Alcoa sees a deficit in aluminum continuing in 2019, with a 1.7-2.1 million ton deficit estimated while a surplus of alumina is expected driven by China.  Alcoa is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • BB&T Corporation (BBT) reported FY4Q2019 financials pre-market Thursday that matched analyst estimates. BB&T generated an adjusted EPS of USD$1.05/share in FY4Q2018 while analysts’ consensus called for USD$1.05/share. BB&T’s net interest margin of 3.49% edged slightly past analysts’ consensus net interest margin estimate of 3.48%. BB&T is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • CSX (CSX) reported 4Q18 EPS of USD$1.01 while 99 cents was consensus.  CSX 4Q18 revenue of USD$3.14 billion came in line with USD$3.12 billion consensus.  CSX operating margin this quarter was 60.3% and CSX expects that to improve in 2020.  CSX completed its USD$5 billion share buyback and authorized another USD$5 billion buyback.  CSX is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Industrials Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Electronic Arts Inc. (EA) have reportedly canceled development of their open-world Star Wars game. The cancellation is raising questions if EA can retain their contract with Disney for the Star Wars intellectual property when the contract is up for renewal in 2024. Additionally, Jefferies downgraded its recommendation for EA from buy to hold. EA is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Neutral” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Fastenal (FAST) reported 4Q18 EPS of 59 cents while 60 cents was consensus.  Fastenal 4Q18 revenue of USD$1.22 billion came in line with USD$1.23 billion consensus.  Fastenal saw sales grow 8.7% in the quarter.  Fastenal is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Fiserv (FISV) has lined up bridge loan financing for its planned acquisition of First Data (FDC).  First Data has a USD$18 billion debt load which includes USD$13 billion of loans and USD$5 billion of bonds.  Fiserv said it intends to keep its BBB rating.  Fiserv is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas. First Data is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Attractive” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Key Bank (KEY) reported 4Q18 EPS of 45 cents while 47 cents was consensus.  Key Bank 4Q18 revenue of USD$1.64 billion came in line with USD$1.64 billion consensus.  4Q18 NIM on a taxable equivalent basis was 3.16%, in-line with 3.19% consensus.  Key Bank is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Kinder Morgan (KMI) reported 4Q18 EPS of 23 cents while 25 cents was consensus.  Kinder Morgan 4Q18 revenue of USD$1.96 billion came in line with USD$1.94 billion consensus.  Backlog fell to USD$5.7 billion.  Kinder Morgan is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) reported 4Q18 EPS of  73 cents while 89 cents was consensus.  Morgan Stanley 4Q18 revenue of USD$8.5 billion came well below USD$9.35 billion consensus.  FICC sales and trading revenue came at USD$564 million while USD$822 million was consensus.  Morgan Stanley is rated “Unattractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Pandora A/S (CPSE: PNDORA) Christmas season sales declined at Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG), the retail company said in a statement. Signet detailed in its statement that the firm’s product category, labeled as Other, “declined driven by a strategic reduction of owned brand beads, as well as declined in Pandora.” Pandora is rated “Neutral” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas. Signet is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PPG Industries (PPG) reported FY4Q2018 financials that slightly beat analysts’ expectations. PPG generated an adjusted EPS from continuing operations in FY4Q2018 of USD$1.15/share while analysts’ consensus called for USD$1.10/share. PPG’s revenue of USD$3.65bn in FY4Q2018 met analyst expectations of USD$3.65bn. PPG is rated “Neutral” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • PulteGroup (PHM) was downgraded by BTIG to sell from neutral.  PulteGroup’s price target was set at UD$23.  The downgrade comes after a 14% run in the stock that is now trading at a 21% premium to its peers.  PulteGroup is rated “Attractive” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Sage (LSE: SGE) reported a 10.5% jump in fiscal 2Q19 revenue to 387 million pounds.  Sage saw subscription growth of 27.7% while total organic revenue growth was 7.6%.  Sage reiterated 2019 guidance with Shore Capital reiterating its buy rating in the wake of these results.  Sage Data is rated “Attractive” in our European Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSEC:2330) provided revenue guidance well below consensus.  Taiwan Semiconductor forecasts 2019 revenue of USD$7.3-7.4 billion while present consensus is for USD$8.1 billion.  The maker of chips for Apple (AAPL) continues to feel the slowdown in handset sales.  Taiwan Semiconductor is not rated in our Global Top Stock Ideas.  Apple is rated “Top Buy” in our US Large-Cap Global Top Stock Ideas and “Top Buy” in our US Information Technology Global Top Stock Ideas.

 

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European Stocks

  • The Euro Stoxx 600 is currently down -0.16%, the FTSE 100 has declined -0.5%, the DAX has fallen -0.31%, and the CAC 40 is lower by -0.37%
  • Following the “no vote” on the most recent BREXIT deal, US Prime Minister Theresa May is reaching out to political rivals to see if it is possible to reach a compromise BREXIT deal
  • Investor sentiment for European stocks is negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Euro Stoxx 600 currently at 0.68x
  • Oil & Gas (+0.18%), Telecommunications (+0.07%), and Basic Resources (+0.08%) stocks are the top performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • Automobiles & Parts (-0.74%), Food & Beverage (+0.41%), and Utilities (-0.08%) stocks are the worst performers in the Euro Stoxx 600 today
  • 195 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are at 4-week highs while 12 stocks are at 4-week lows
  • 20 stocks in the Euro Stoxx 600 are overbought while 2 stocks are oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • VSTOXX, the European stocks equivalent of the VIX, is little changed this morning and is currently at 15.58 after closing at 15.72 yesterday
  • EUR€ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.1401
  • GBP£ is currently little changed against the USD$ at 1.2893
  • CHF is currently down -0.198% against the USD$ to 1.0078
  • German 10-Year Bunds are higher with yields down -0.2 basis points to 0.222%
  • UK 10-Year GILTs are higher with yields down -0.5 basis points to 1.306%

Asian Stocks

  • Asia stocks finished down as with the recent momentum fueling advances across Asian stock markets fades
  • The Nikkei 225 finished down --0.2%, the Hang Seng ended down -0.54%, the Hang Seng China Enterprise declined -0.41%, and the CSI 300 was -0.55%
  • Investor sentiment for Japanese stocks finished positive with the advance/decline ratio for the Nikkei 225 closing at 1.59x
  • 66 stocks in the Nikkei 225 hit 4-week highs while 4 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 1 stock in the Nikkei 225 closed overbought while 1 stock closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Investor sentiment for Hong Kong stocks finished negative with the advance/decline ratio for the Hang Seng closing at 0.22x
  • 21 stocks in the Hang Seng hit 4-week highs while 0 stocks reached 4-week lows
  • 5 stocks in the Hang Seng closed overbought while 0 stocks closed oversold according to the 16-day RSI Measure
  • Japan 2-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.8 basis points to -0.167%
  • Japan 10-Year Government Bonds are higher with yields down -0.4 basis points to 0.006%
  • JGBs 2s-10s Spread has widened 0.4 basis points to 0.17%
  • JPY¥ is currently down -0.229% against the USD$ to 108.84

 

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

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Stock Sentiment

Top Stocks by 7-day News Volume

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
JPMorgan Chase & Co 149 5 -5 4 0.19% 0.04%
Netflix Inc 55 1.29 -5 -11 -1.9% -3.61%
Ford Motor Co 48 1.71 -3 -3 -4.42% 0.54%
QUALCOMM Inc 46 2.43 -3 -11 -1.34% 8.5%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 46 5.29 -17 -6 -3.07% -5.33%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Volume

Top Stocks by 7-Day Average News Buzz

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Name 7 Day News
Volume
7 Day Average
News Buzz
1M EPS Net
Revisions
3M EPS Net
Revisions
1M EPS
% Chg
3M EPS
% Chg
Morgan Stanley 6 5.71 -10 10 -5.51% -6.33%
BlackRock Inc 27 5.57 -11 -16 -5.15% -7.4%
PepsiCo Inc 16 5.43 -1 -1 -1.17% -1.49%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The 46 5.29 -17 -6 -3.07% -5.33%
Union Pacific Corp 13 5.14 1 13 0.2% 4.44%

Note: Please see our General FAQs to learn how we define and measure News Buzz

Implied Volatility Data For Liquid Macro Index ETFs

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ETF 30D IV 30D IV
Percentile
90D IV 90D IV
Percentile
90D/30D IV 90D/30D IV
Percentile
30D IV-
20D HV
30D IV-20D HV
Percentile
90D IV-
60D HV
90D IV-60D HV
Percentile
SPY 14.6 65.08% 16.12 73.81% 1.1 58.13% -14.2 1.59% -8.02 1.98%
QQQ 21.53 68.65% 21.15 75.4% 0.98 41.67% -14.28 1.19% -11.81 0.79%
IWM 18.73 72.22% 18.9 76.59% 1.01 42.86% -10.11 1.19% -7.58 0.4%
FEZ 16.69 63.49% 15.48 51.98% 0.93 19.05% -3.15 19.05% -3.65 7.54%
EEM 18.31 44.64% 19.66 52.78% 1.07 83.53% -1.15 41.27% -3.96 9.92%

Note: Please see our Options FAQs to learn more about Implied Volatility and other advanced options volatility measures

S&P 500 Sector Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Russell 1000 Factor Performance

*Data in Price Return as of Previous Day's EOD, Source: StockDio

Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable
Quantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily ExecutableQuantitatively-Derived Options Trades: Transparent and Easily Executable

Stock Movers From Our US Large-Cap Model

Top Buy Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
ALIGN TECHNOLOGY INC ALGN Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies 5.84% 3.18% -8.27%
CULLEN/FROST BANKERS INC CFR Financials Banks 2.49% 2.65% 5.18%
MSCI INC MSCI Financials Capital Markets 2.01% 5.41% 23.93%
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS INC LW Consumer Staples Food Products 1.84% 0.66% 24.85%
S&P GLOBAL INC SPGI Financials Capital Markets 1.84% 6.33% 10.6%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
EXELIXIS INC EXEL Health Care Biotechnology -4.77% -3.18% -31.44%
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP EW Health Care Health Care Equipment & Supplies -3.42% 1.47% 33.92%
FISERV INC FISV Information Technology IT Services -3.35% -1.03% 10.74%
FORTINET INC FTNT Information Technology Software -3.12% -1.02% 48.93%
ZOETIS INC ZTS Health Care Pharmaceuticals -1.9% -3.57% 15.39%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Top Short Winners and Losers

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Winners Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
VIKING THERAPEUTICS INC VKTX Health Care Biotechnology -6.3% -5.0% 57.98%
MYRIAD GENETICS INC MYGN Health Care Biotechnology -3.89% -7.74% -21.27%
SHAKE SHACK INC SHAK Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure -3.88% -5.37% 6.77%
CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC CRZO Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels -3.41% -6.47% -64.15%
ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC ARRY Health Care Biotechnology -2.87% -2.76% 21.62%
 
Losers Ticker Sector Industry 1D Return 5D Return YTD
UNITED NATURAL FOODS INC UNFI Consumer Staples Food & Staples Retailing 24.91% 24.83% -116.89%
THOR INDUSTRIES INC THO Consumer Discretionary Automobiles 3.91% 5.92% -86.36%
ALTICE USA INC ATUS Communication Services Media 3.61% -1.48% -6.28%
BANK OZK OZK Financials Banks 3.37% 6.63% -54.03%
GENERAL ELECTRIC CO GE Industrials Industrial Conglomerates 2.82% 5.49% -66.61%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, StockDio

Cryptos

  • Cryptocurrencies fell broadly lower overnight as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is trading down 0.98% in the last 24 hours to USD$3,636.19. Only three major coins are positive in today’s trading as Bitcoin Cash (BCH) is trading 0.78% higher in the last 24 hours to USD$131.51, Cardano (ADA) is trading 0.37% higher in the last 24 hours to USD$0.044798, and Binance Coin appreciated 0.90% in the last 24 hours to USD$6.16. Litecoin (LTC) is leading major coins in declines, down 2.84% in the last 24 hours to USD$31.11. Ethereum is the second-worst performing major coin over the last 24 hours, down 2.76% to USD$122.10.  
  • A bill introduced by lawmakers in Wyoming proposes tokenized stock certificates issued via blockchain technology. House Bill 0185, titled, “Corporate stock-certificate tokens,” would amend pre-existing legislation to allow stock certificates representing the ownership of stocks to be stored electronically on a digital blockchain platform. The bill has bipartisan support with 7 Republican state representatives and 1 democrat state representative having introduced the bill.  
  • Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by adjusted daily trading volume, froze tokens that were sent to the exchange’s wallet from the entity that allegedly hacked New Zealand crypto exchange Cryptopia, according to a tweet by CEO Changpeng Zhao. Cryptopia abruptly shut down its website and services on Monday due to detected malicious activity and is still shut down due to an ongoing police investigation. Zhao discussed on Twitter that Binance was, “able to freeze some of the funds,” while adding, “I don’t understand why the hackers keep sending to Binance. Social media will be pretty fast to report it, and we will freeze it. It’s a high risk maneuver for them.” 
  • Chronicled, a US-based blockchain enterprise supply chain developer, has netted USD$16mm in Series A funding, according to a company press release Tuesday. Notable participants in the funding round include Mandra Capital, Streamlined Ventures, and The Perkins Fund. Mandra Capital’s Principal, Song Yi Zhang, commented in the press release, “While many companies in the space are conducting ICOs -- fueling speculation and hurting the legitimacy of the space – Chronicled has stayed disciplined and pursued traditional funding while focusing on developing needed applications with quantifiable value.” 

Cryptocurrencies Today

*Data in Price Return and Updated Real-Time (with a delay), Source: StockDio

High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies
High Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for CryptocurrenciesHigh Machine Learning Accuracy Rates for Cryptocurrencies

Events Calendar

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Company Name Ticker Event Date Event Type Q-Factor Score
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. CBSH 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Morgan Stanley MS 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
BB&T Corporation BBT 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
PPG Industries, Inc. PPG 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Signature Bank SBNY 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
KeyCorp KEY 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
M&T Bank Corporation MTB 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B
Netflix, Inc. NFLX 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D, US Consumer Discretionary: C
People's United Financial, Inc. PBCT 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. JBHT 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: A
Bank OZK OZK 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: F
PacWest Bancorp PACW 1/17/2019 Estimated Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Regions Financial Corporation RF 1/17/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
State Street Corporation STT 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
V.F. Corporation VFC 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Consumer Discretionary: B
Citizens Financial Group, Inc. CFG 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C
Schlumberger Limited SLB 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
SunTrust Banks, Inc. STI 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: D
Kansas City Southern KSU 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: B, US Industrials: B
First Horizon National Corporation FHN 1/18/2019 Earnings Release Date US Large-Cap: C

Source: S&P Capital IQ

 

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